Wherever There Is Human Judgment, There Is Noise Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients – or that two judges give different sentences to people who hace committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor or judge makes different decision depending on whether it is Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven’t yet had lunch. These a…
We are all guilty of cognitive biases, simple errors we make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices. The Art Of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don’t need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadget, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, …